index > Today's Earth, Our Future > 6. We love food > A Grain Shortage is Looming!
 
A Grain Shortage is Looming!Wheat, corn and rice are three major grains grown in the world. Wheat and corn are the largest grain crops with an output of almost 600 million tons each, while rice production is nearly 400 million tons. The world grain production totaled about 1.833 billion tons in 2000. It tripled over the half century from 631 million tons in 1950. The amount of grain produced depends on two factors: the size of land for grain production and the amount produced per unit area of land. Grain production rose substantially over the 50 years because both factors increased. Agricultural lands have been expanded by clearing mountains and plowing grasslands. At the same time, farmers have become able to produce much more crops from the same size of land. One reason for this is the newly developed varieties of grains that can produce higher yields, and another is the increased use of fertilizers to make the grains grow bigger and more rapidly. Do you know the word "irrigation"? Irrigation is a way to supply crops with water consistently. For example, water drawn from a river can be supplied to rice paddies so the roots of the rice plants will always have water. Irrigation makes it possible for crops to always get enough water, even when there is a shortage of rain. Without enough water, crops cannot grow well. Also, crops can absorb fertilizer better when it is already dissolved in water, so irrigation plays an important role in increasing the crop production. Thanks to irrigation, the global crop production has, in fact, increased. Over the past several years, however, something strange has been happening in the agricultural industry: Grain production has not been increasing as much as before. On the other hand, the world population has kept growing, and all these people need to eat. What will happen, do you think, if the world population keeps growing, while crop production does not? The result will be less food per person to eat. Besides, we cannot harvest crops all year around. In Japan, for example, rice is planted in spring and harvested in autumn. People eat this years' rice harvest throughout the year until the next autumn. Also, we cannot keep producing the same amount of crops every year--some years may have a good harvest of crops and other years may have a poor harvest. To prepare for a poor crop year, we need to save a certain amount of crops, don't we? In 1987, the grain stocks in the world were equal to 100 days of consumption. This means we reserved enough grains to supply all the people around the world for 100 days, even if suddenly no crops could be harvested. But since then, while the amount of grain coming into warehouses has not increased much, more and more grain has been taken out from the warehouses. As a result, the stocks have decreased to the point where there is now only a 58-day supply of grains. It's said that we need at least a 70-day stock, or else we will probably suffer a worldwide food shortage even with one year of bad harvest. If this happens, grains will become so expensive that millions of people won't be able to buy bread or rice and will suffer from malnutrition. In the worst case, many would die of hunger. As mentioned above, the world grain production tripled between 1950 and 2000, but now why doesn't it increase as much as in those days?
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   6. We love food
   
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