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Why Doesn't World Grain Production Increase?

There are three major reasons why grain production in the world has stopped increasing:
1. The land area for grain cultivation has been decreasing.
2. There is not enough water for grain cultivation.
3. Increasing the use of fertilizers can't boost grain production more than the present amount.

1. For the past several years, the total area of the world's farmlands has not increased. For example, in Japan, the total area of agricultural fields decreased by about a million hectares from that of 30 years ago.
This is because people stopped growing crops on agricultural land and built many houses, factories and roads instead.

In a similar way, as agricultural countries become industrialized by their economic development, the farmland area will shrink further.

Another reason why farmland is decreasing is "desertification." This is a phenomenon where soil becomes poor in quality by excessive cultivation and grazing and finally becomes a desert.

2. Next, let's look at "water." Crops can't grow without water. For example, to produce one ton of wheat, as much as 1,000 tons of water is needed. In order to help the crops grow, farmers draw water from rivers and underground rather than just waiting for the rain to fall. However, the more a country or region develops, the more water is needed for industrial and household use. So, people start to use vast amounts of water from rivers and underground. As a result, rivers dry up, underground water levels drop, and water is no longer available for agriculture.

In the Midwest region of the United States, an increasing number of towns and cities are becoming larger, but this has forced farmers to give up irrigation because there is no more underground water left. Also in China, India and many other countries, more and more farmers have had to quit farming because the rivers and underground water have dried up.

3. As mentioned in the section before this one ("A Grain Shortage Is Looming"), world grain production tripled in the past, and one of the main factors was the increase in fertilizer use. But remember that fertilizers for crops are just like food for humans--when crops need fertilizers, they actively absorb nutrition; when they have enough fertilizer, they don't absorb more than necessary. Some farmers in the U.S. have even reduced the use of fertilizers, as they found that even if they increase the amount of fertilizers, it is no longer effective for increasing crop production.

The area of farmland and the amount of water are not increasing but rather decreasing. Also, fertilizer, the last resort for farmers, doesn't always work effectively anymore. As the world population continues to increase steadily, we cannot help but worry about a possible food shortage.

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